Natural Gas April 2018 failed to break above strong resistance of $2.70 once again

Natural Gas April 2018 contract settled +1% higher on Thursday session at $2.70 amid the slightly bullish EIA Storage report and March cold temperatures forecasts. Natural Gas still extending the last week rally from the lows of $2,60, but if founds strong resistance at the strong level of $2.70, failing to break it until now.

Fundamental Analysis:

  1. Weather forecasts models still remaining neutral-bullish for the first half of March, showing most of the days with average temperatures for the month, providing some support on the prices.
  2. The EIA Storage report for the week ended 23 February came yesterday with a -78 Bcf change in storage, bringing the total storage number to 1.682 Tcf. This compares to the -7 Bcf change last year and -118 Bcf change for the five-year average.

EIA Storage report

Technical Analysis:

Natural Gas April 2018 contract still trading inside the upward channel where yesterday the upper boundary of the channel rejected once again the price to move above $2.72, settling at $2.70. The price finds strong resistance at $2.70 , failing 4 times to break above it during the last 10 days. In case of new weather bullish forecasts, then the price might try new attempt to break above $2.70 and test the resistance level of $2.75.Any fail to break above, then the price might retest the lower level of the channel of $2.65 and then the strong support of $2.60.

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