Natural Gas May 18 contract still rallying on cold weather forecasts for early April

Natural Gas May 18 contract rallied yesterday to $2.71, almost 3% up , continuing the rebound from the lows of $2.60 since Monday morning based on an impressive April time Arctic cold storm for the first 10 days of April in Northeast USA.

Fundamental Analysis: 

  1. Natural Gas May 18 is the new front month contract after the expiration of the April 18 contract yesterday. Both contracts ended the yesterday session with the same 3% profit.
  2. Weather forecast models still predicting remarkably cold weather for the first 10 days of April, where a cold Arctic air mass invasion will take place in Northeast USA, bringing lower temperatures than April average and snow in some areas.
  3. The new unexpected for April month cold weather would create one of the largest April weekly Storage withdrawals which could extend the storage withdrawal season into the second half of April and delaying the start of the Storage injections period.
  4. According to www.cmegroup.com, the Natural Gas’ monthly contract price strip is the following:

 

Technical Analysis: 

Natural Gas May18 which is the new front month, has risen from its lows of $2.60 since Monday where it reached the intra days highs of $2.73 levels yesterday.If the price continues to take support from the weather forecasts, then it could retest the strong resistance levels of $2.75-$2.80 during the following days where it failed to surpass last month.$2.80 area is very strong resistance once is both the 100&200 EMA and the February highs.

Natural Gas May18 contract

 

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